The Johnson Formula

From “Surnames and Her-Names”

he fact that a preponderance of people in the country share so few surnames may at first seem worthless trivia.  However, it does have one useful application.  Did you ever wonder how many people you know who are not related to you?  I mean personally, by name and on sight—people you are acquainted with and who know you.  Go ahead, reflect, then make a guess.  Is it a two digit number, three digits, or four?  When I asked one friend to guess, he estimated he knew several thousands of people, but I think only those qualifying for campaign matching funds know so many.

There is no accurate way for you to find out for sure exactly how many people you know because the number is constantly changing, like your Christmas card list.  You meet new people and you forget others.  For example, it is unlikely that you can remember most of your grade school companions, provided you are not still in grade school.  But there is a way to estimate the number of acquaintances for the average person using the Johnson Formula.  So if you are average, you are in luck.

According to the 2000 U. S. Census Bureau data, approximately 5% of the population in the United States had the last names of Smith, Johnson, Williams, Brown, Jones, Miller, Davis, Garcia, Rodriquez and Wilson. Assuming the same ratio today (recent surveys show the percentage of these names declining as a percent of the total, but 5% is close enough for this purpose) a random selection of the population should yield the same results, roughly one in twenty Americans with one of these surnames. Of course the distribution of these names may differ in various regions of the country but we will discuss the major regional exceptions in a moment.

If you have a normal urban life you can use this ratio of 1:20 and the Johnson Formula to estimate the number of people whose eyeball has met your eyeball.

Start by counting all your acquaintances who have the surname of Smith (no relatives, please.)  Think long and hard, reviewing all aspects of your life, including work, home, social functions, neighbors, and secret affairs.  Record the tally.  Then do the same for the other nine surnames (again, no relatives).

Total the ten tallies, multiply by 20 and you get your Johnson Number, an estimate of the number of people you know personally.

If you are an introvert the answer is probably less than 400.  If you are a politician it is most likely in the thousands.  If you are one of those people who cannot remember people’s names, your Johnson Number gives a good estimate of the total number of people who’s name you can remember.

If you are a Minnesotan do not fret that you are so unpopular—your Johnson Number may be low because so many northern Europeans settled in the area.  Your score also will not be accurate if you are a Quaker or live in southern Florida, New York’s Harlem, or south Texas.  In Cajun country you should substitute the name Broussard for Smith.  If you dwell in South Carolina your Johnson Number may indicate that you are an extrovert, but that’s only because of all those bloody Englishmen who settled there long ago.

For most us cosmopolitans, however, the Johnson Formula should give a ballpark figure of the number of people who would recognize our names in an obituary.